Scenario Results

The chart below shows the total energy sector demand for the storylines Distributed Energy and Global Ambition. A key driver in how the final energy demand volumes are derived is a EU28 target specifying a 32.5 % reduction in final use energy demand by 2030 compared to 2005. The final use demand for the EU28 according to DEE2012/27/EU(10309/18)⁵ should be around 11,100 TWh. The final use energy demand figure does not include the energy requirement for non-energy uses. When this adjustment is taken into account, final energy demand in 2030 for Distributed Energy is 10,500 TWh and Global Ambition 10,600 TWh. Both scenarios achieve in 2050 higher efficiency gain above 50 %, higher than 1.5TECH and LIFE LTS scenarios.

Final energy demand can achieve ambitious reductions in energy volume due to changes to end user applications and energy efficiency measures. The scenario storylines capture themes such as, but not limited to:

Although overall final energy demand is decreasing, gas and electricity show different trends. For gas at least until 2025 as well as for electricity in the long-run, the energy demand growth is driven by factors such as underlying gross domestic product (GDP) growth, additional energy demand from low temperature heat and transport sectors as these sectors switch away from carbon-intensive fuels, such as coal and oil. The storylines assume that at an EU level underlying GDP growth is tempered by the strong energy efficiency measures, so that final energy demand (which includes electricity demand) is reduced to meet the EU28 32.5 % energy efficiency target for 2030.

The National Trends energy figures are based on the TSO data compatible with the latest available data from member state NECPs. The annual energy volumes come from national forecasts, that are summed up to provide information at EU28 level.

The scenarios show that higher direct electrification of final use demand across all sectors results in an increase in the need for electricity generation.

Distributed Energy is the scenario storyline with the highest annual electricity demand reaching around 4,000 TWh in 2040 and around 4,300 TWh in 2050.

The results for scenarios show that there is the potential for year on year growth for EU28 direct electricity demand. The table provides annual EU-28 electricity demand volumes and the associated growth rate for the specified periods.

The growth rates for the storyline show that by 2040 National Trends is centrally positioned in terms of growth between the two more-ambitious top-down scenarios Distributed Energy and Global Ambition. The main reason for the switch in growth rates is due to the fact that Global ambition has the strongest levels of energy efficiency, whereas for Distributed Energy strong electricity demand growth is linked to high electrification from high uptake of electric vehicles and heat pumps (in households and district heating), overlaying electrical energy efficiency gains.
Peak electricity demand is defined as the highest single hourly power demand (GW) within a given year. Peak demand growth in the future will be impacted in a number of ways, for example:

The hourly demand charts show that the historical effects of GDP and energy efficiency continue influencing electricity demand growth in industry, tertiary and residential sectors. The scenarios show that direct electrification of transport and heating sectors starts to have a significant impact on the hourly profiles.

It is clear from the future demand profile composition that the impact of electric vehicles is noticeable throughout the year. The impact for heat pumps is however largely dependent on the outside weather temperature. Naturally, there is a reduced demand for heat in the summer, but electrified water heating remains part of the composition during summer periods.

Peak demand for electricity grows between 2030 and 2040 for each storyline. The electrification of heat and transport are two significant drivers in growth of electricity peak demand. The storyline assumptions mean that GDP related peak demand growth is moderated by energy efficiency. The impact of demand side response on peak electricity is modelled as a priced demand side response in the power market analyses.

The National Trends demand profiles are developed from the TSOs input based on latest available member state NECPs and where available national projections for 2040. For the top-down scenarios ENTSOG and ENTSO-E assume a high uptake of smart charging for transport, which will moderate peak demand growth rates. The demand profiles account for outside temperature and the impact on peak demand; this is important as the share of electricity within the heating sector increases.

For the top-down scenarios there is rational spread in peak demand growth rates between 2030 and 2040. Global Ambition is the scenario with the lowest levels of heat pumps, coupled higher energy efficiency results in this scenario in the lowest peak demand growth between 2030 & 2040. In Distributed Energy the main driver for higher peak demand is the higher rate of electrification across all sectors, however, it is important to note this can at the same time provide additional opportunities for demand side response, such as vehicle to grid or demand flexibilities at domestic level.

The peak demand growth rate in National Trends between 2030 and 2040 indicates a 1.0 % year on year growth in peak demand. The growth rate for National Trends lies firmly in between the demand growth rates for Distributed Energy and Global Ambition. The spread in peak demand provides an opportunity for all three scenarios to enhance the understanding on the long-term impacts for the European transmission system.

Direct electrification of transport and heat

Electrification of heat and transport are two key areas that are necessary to decarbonise the European energy system. The information received from the TSOs and the COP21 scenarios show that electric vehicles and heat pumps have the greatest impact on electricity demand. The charts show how the scenario electric vehicles and heat pumps compare to external scenarios referenced in the chart as “range”.

The scenarios aim to reduce emissions in line with the European targets and COP21 pathways. To achieve ambitious emission reduction in the heating sector, a shift away from fossil fuels is required. The scenarios show that moving away from oil and coal is a quick win to reduce emissions in the heating sector. The top-down and bottom up scenarios highlight the need for consumers to change how they use heat in their homes and businesses. The scenarios require a large shift towards electric and hybrid heat pumps, these technologies both reduce primary energy demand and final use energy demand due to the impact of heat pump co-efficient of performance. Heat pump technologies are used for space heating and sanity water heating.

Distributed Energy shows the highest electrification with 245 Million electric vehicles and around 50 million heat pumps by 2040. The volumes relating to electric vehicles and heat pumps provide insight into why the Distributed Energy electricity demand reaches 4,000 TWh by 2040.

Global Ambition is a scenario where there is strong uptake of electric vehicles reaching around 200 million by 2040 but lower heat pump uptake at around 25 million devices. The scenario assumed more uptake of alternative low carbon heating to ensure that the emissions levels for the scenarios are achieved.

The National Trends scenario is based on TSO data and shows that there is a lower level of ambition for electrification of the transport sector around 100 million electric vehicles with around 60 million heat pumps by 2040. The scenario numbers for electric vehicles and electric and ­hybrid heat pumps technologies are shown on the charts. The shaded area represents a range of minimum and maximum values from 3rd party studies, see section “Benchmarking” for further information. The charts show that the input assumptions for heat pumps and electric vehicles numbers lie within credible values.

Total gas demand⁷ is split up into final demand (residential, tertiary, industry incl. non-energy uses and transport) and demand for power generation. Whereas scenarios can show a decrease or increase for the total gas demand, the different sectors can evolve independently and in different directions.

By 2030, National Trends has the lowest total gas demand. In contrary to that, Global Ambition and Distributed Energy reach higher decarbonisation levels of the energy system with more gas. This is due to three main reasons:

When comparing the sectoral split, all scenarios project a decrease in the residential and tertiary sector, but the uptake of gas demand in the transport sector can compensate parts of it in the COP21 Scenarios. These trends remain until 2040, resulting in lower demand for all scenarios: Distributed Energy decreases even to ca. 4,000 TWh (–20 % compared to today’s level). On the other side, industry shows a more stable demand development and gas demand for transport increases throughout all scenarios, most significantly in Global Ambition.

It is worth mentioning, that the development of final gas demand differs from region to region. Due to a high dependency on coal, gas demand for heating rather increases in Central and Eastern Europe, whereas other regions head towards more electrification in the private heating sector. To give an example coal has a share of up to 50 % in the heating sector and 80 % in the power generation in Poland.

A switch from carbon-intensive coal to natural gas with lower carbon intensity by 2025, results in 186 TWh additional gas demand. However, this would lead to emissions reduction in the electricity generation of a minimum of 85 MtCO₂. At least until 2030 gas demand for power generation is increasing with the level of decarbonisation (including a fast coal-phase out) and electricity demand. Therefore, Distributed Energy as the scenario with the highest electricity demand has up to 26 % more gas demand for power generation than National Trends with the lowest gas demand for electricity generation. The picture changes for 2040, where also National Trends has accomplished the coal phase-out but shows lower ­renewable power generation. As a result, National Trends has the highest gas demand for power in 2040.

Decarbonisation of the energy system comes with an uptake of the hydrogen demand

As a consequence of an increasing volume of hydrogen generation, the COP21 scenarios consider contrasted development of the hydrogen demand that could materialise to make use of this potential:

For the COP21 Scenarios, the overall energy mix becomes carbon-neutral by 2050. To fully decarbonize, both COP21 Scenarios register a significant increase in both renewables and further CO₂ removal technologies, while reducing primary energy demand. Whereas both scenarios reach similar levels of primary energy demand decrease of around 40 % compared to 2015, the RES share in Global Ambition reaches 69 % by 2050 but is still outbid by Distributed Energy with a RES share of 82 %.

The vast majority of energy stems from renewables. In 2050, wind, solar and hydro cover roughly 52 % of primary energy demand in Europe within the scenario Distributed Energy and about 34 % in Global Ambition, while nuclear as a CO₂ neutral generation source contributes between 6 and 9 %. Biomass and energy from waste materials ­contribute significantly – in Distributed Energy they cover 22 % and in Global Ambition 28 % of the primary ­energy mix.

Biomass can be directly used in industrial processes, or as feedstock to produce biofuels or biomethane – both can be used in all sectors, with a main focus in power generation, transport and heating. Since coal is assumed to be phased out in Europe by 2040, the remaining demand is covered by oil, nuclear and gas imports. The increase in renewable energy production results in declining “all-energy” import shares, from 55 % to 60 % nowadays, to ca.18 % in Distributed Energy and 31 % in Global Ambition⁹.

A key enabler for the transition is the conversion of wind and solar power to P2G and P2L, which balances the variable electricity supply to energy demand and allows utilization of energy sourced from renewable electricity in final consumption sectors when there is no electricity demand.

In the COP21 Scenarios, the electricity mix becomes carbon neutral by 2040. In EU-28, electricity from renewable sources meets up to 64 % of power demand in 2030 and 78 % in 2040. Variable renewables (wind and solar) play a key role in this transition, as their share in the electricity mix grows to up to 44 % by 2030 and 61 % by 2040.

The remaining renewable capacity consists of biofuels and hydro. All figures stated above exclude power dedicated for P2X use, which is assumed to be entirely from curtailed RES, and newly build renewables that are not grid-connected, and therefore not considered in this representation.

There is an increase in renewable capacity foreseen in all scenarios…
… but the speed of the uptake is contingent on the story­line associated with each scenario.

Distributed Energy is the scenario with the highest investment in generation capacity, driven mainly by the highest level of electrical demand. Distributed Energy mainly focuses on the development of solar PV. This technology has the lowest load factor, as result solar PV installed capacity will be higher compared to offshore or onshore wind to meet the same energy requirement. The scenario shows a larger growth in onshore wind after 2030.

In 2030, solar covers 14 % of the total electrical energy and wind covers 29 %. In 2040, solar covers 18 % of the electrical energy and 41 % comes from wind. The scenario also shows the least amount of electricity produced from nuclear out of the three scenarios, providing 16 % of electricity in 2030 and 10 % in 2040.

Global Ambition has a lower electricity demand, with a general trend of higher nuclear and reduced prices of offshore wind. Consequently, the capacity required for this scenario is the lowest as more energy is produced per MW of installed capacity in offshore wind. Nuclear provides 19 % of energy in 2030 and reducing to 12 % in 2040. In 2030, solar covers 10 % of the total electrical energy and wind covers 31 %. In 2040, solar covers 13 % of the electrical energy and 44 % comes from wind.

National Trends is the national policy-based scenario. The variable renewable generation rests between the two top down scenarios. In 2030, Solar covers 12 % of the total electrical energy and wind cover 29 %. In 2040, Solar covers 15 % of the electrical energy and 41 % comes from wind. 17 % of electrical energy is still produced from nuclear in 2030, reducing to 12 % in 2040.

The scenarios include repowering of renewable generation technologies in 2040 resulting in the integration of load hours.

Shares of coal for electricity generation decrease in all scenarios. This is due to national policies on coal phase-out, such as stated by UK and Italy or planned by Germany. Coal generation moves from 8 % in 2025, to 3 %–6 % in 2030 and negligible amounts in 2040.

Gas, however, has a share of 20 % in 2025, which reduces in 2040 to 10–12 %. It is important to note level of decarbonised and renewable gases in the gas mix, increases to 13 % in 2030 and 54 % in 2040. Distributed Energy starts to show a need for CCS in 2040, which will lead to negative emissions in plants burning biomethane.

Considerations on Other Non-Renewables (mainly smaller scale CHPs) source are important for decarbonisation. As it stands, carbon-based fuels are still widely used in CHP plants throughout Europe. This includes oil, lignite, coal and gas. In order to follow the thermal phase-out storylines, oil, coal and lignite should be phased out by 2040 and replaced with cleaner energy sources. Gas will contribute to decarbonisation by increasing shares of renewable and decarbonised gas.

Other RES contains generation technologies such as marine, small biofuel and geothermal. The generation from this collection of technologies remains stable in all scenarios.

Generation from hydro increases in 2030 due to an increase in capacity from 145 GW in 2025 to 174 GW in 2030 but remains stable after 2030. As hydro potential is determined by very specific conditions, bottom up data is used for all scenarios.

Thermal capacities are reduced, not only to national phase-out policies, but the fact that some generation units will no longer be economically viable due to reduced running hours or will reach the end of their lifetime.

The scenarios show that there is potential for demand side technologies and batteries to take part in the market and help to smoothen demand peaks and level prices. While the impact of these technologies in terms of energy may be low, they show a vast potential to reduce generation from carbon based peaking units, supporting decarbonisation, contribute towards system adequacy at lower costs and help to integrate increasingly variable electricity generation.

Distributed Energy shows the highest increase in usage of these technologies in 2030, whilst the other scenarios incorporate relatively moderate to low usage. Distributed Energy shows more use of demand side resources as the cost of residential solar and battery systems are discounted. In 2040, there is a much larger increase in use of battery technologies in all scenarios, the most noticeable are Distributed Energy and National Trends.

Indigenous production: contrasted views captured by the COP21 scenarios

All scenarios consider similar decrease of the conventional indigenous production. However, the assumptions on the indigenous renewable gas production, such as biomethane and P2G, differ across the scenarios:

The contrasted approach towards the supply configurations is essential when assessing the infrastructure for the next twenty years since it directly impacts the way the European gas system is used.

Enough gas potential to satisfy the EU demand until 2050

All scenarios consider a maximum utilisation of indigenous production in the European gas supply mix until 2050. The supply potential assessment run by ENTSOG and discussed with stakeholders in July 2019¹⁰ concludes that for all scenarios, the import potentials are high enough to ensure the supply and demand adequacy of the EU until 2050. This is despite the decline of the conventional indigenous production. In this regard, it can be highlighted that the Dutch Government has decided to stop production at Groningen, Europe’s largest onshore natural gas field, by 2022. Additionally, the supply mix will be further diversified with new sources looking towards 2050.

Furthermore, whilst Norwegian supply is produced in ­Europe, it is considered as an import source to the EU since Norway is not a Member of the Union.

The import supply mix will be dominated by gas from Russia, Norway and LNG

Even though the supply mix will be diversified, the import supply mix will still be dominated by the current three largest supply sources: Russia, Norway and liquefied natural gas (LNG). Which of these sources, who will have the largest share of the import supply mix, will be dependent on market prices, and the supply chain’s adaptation of the growing demand for decarbonised gases.

Figure 21, Figure 22 and Figure 23 highlight the adequacy of scenario specific gas demand and supply. Supply is split into three categories:

All scenarios show enough supply potentials to meet the future demand.

A technology neutral approach

The decarbonisation of the gas supply can be done in many ways. Gas can either be produced from renewable energy such as biomethane or hydrogen from P2G, but it can also be decarbonised from conventional natural gas with different technologies such as steam methane reforming (associated with carbon capture and sequestration process) or pyrolysis.

Each technology comes with its level of decarbonisation that is considered in the computation of the GHG emissions of each scenario to keep track of their carbon budget expenses. For instance, biomethane can be considered as carbon neutral or carbon negative if associated with CCS (therefore included in Bio-Energy Carbon Capture and Sequestration (BECCS) category). However, CCS processes come with efficiency factors to account for the part of the CO₂ that cannot be captured in the process and that is therefore released in the atmosphere.

In order to capture all possible impacts of the development of one or another technology, the scenarios come with contrasted assumptions regarding the penetration of renewable or decarbonised gases in the supply mix of the EU.

A source neutral approach

TYNDP 2020 scenarios consider contrasted possible developments of the gas demand including different gas qualities. ENTSOG and ENTSO-E have improved their methodology and introduced a more detailed breakdown of the gas demand between methane and hydrogen.

However, there are different technological ways both those demands can be satisfied. Methane and hydrogen demands can of course primarily be satisfied respectively by methane and hydrogen production. However, depending on the penetration of the different generation technologies, methane can be decarbonised to generate hydrogen and therefore satisfy the hydrogen demand. On the other hand, hydrogen can be methanised to create methane and therefore satisfy the methane demand. It should be noted that any conversion process incorporates energy losses taken into account as efficiency factors when building the scenarios.

In line with the neutral approach of ENTSOG towards the infrastructure submitted to TYNDP, the scenarios are technology neutral. Therefore, unless a piece of infrastructure is actually commissioned no choice is made by ENTSOG and the scenarios do not pre-empt the location of the conversion of the gas supply to satisfy the demand. The conversion could therefore be centralised at transmission level or be decentralised at city/consumer gate.

6.2.3.2.1 National Trends

The gas supply mix considered in National Trends reflects the current European targets and respective Member States’ NECPs. The level of information regarding the gas supply mix can be very different depending on how the targets are set in the NECPs. Thus, due to lack of consistency between the individual NECPs, the gas supply mix for National Trends is not split into different gas qualities. Based on information available for demand and national production, National Trends will require similar gas imports levels as today, with a peak of 4,000 TWh in 2025.

6.2.3.2.2 Distributed Energy Scenario

As a decentralised scenario, Distributed Energy considers a high level of indigenous production of renewable gas. Since both decarbonisation and a higher self-sufficiency are the main drivers of the Distributed Energy Scenario, it requires a significant increase in renewable electricity generation to meet the P2G demand. Moreover, with almost 1,000 TWh Distributed Energy projects the highest biomethane production of all scenarios. On the other side, imports are reduced by 70 % between 2020 and 2050, accounting for 2,386 TWh in 2040, and 1,050 TWh in 2050. The level of imports is the lowest of all the scenarios and to reach carbon neutrality by 2050 means that the remaining imports must be decarbonised or renewable by then. However, aiming for decarbonisation requires a significant increase in renewable electricity generation to meet the P2G demand.

6.2.3.2.3 Global Ambition Scenario

As a centralised scenario, Global Ambition combines both high decarbonisation levels with a global gas supply and access to a variety of sources. However, thanks to general demand decrease also imports decrease by 25 % by 2050 compared to current levels (–830 TWh). To reach carbon neutrality gas imports to be decarbonised or renewable by then are of a larger scale (2,670 TWh/y) than in Distributed Energy.

Both P2G as well as Biomethane are higher than in National Trends but lower compared to Distributed Energy. Together they contribute with 1,150 TWh by 2050.

Distributed Energy has a significantly higher demand for EU produced hydrogen, synthetic methane and liquids than Global Ambition in 2030 and 2040. The Distributed Energy storyline assumes a reduction by 70 % of gas imports by 2050 (from 3,700 TWh in 2020 down to 1,050 TWh in 2050) combined with the decarbonisation of the gas supply. It also assumes a quasi phase-out of fossil oil by 2050 replaced by European biofuel and P2L.

Distributed Energy and Global Ambition have a specific demand for domestically produced hydrogen. In these scenarios, P2G and P2L plants are operated outside the energy markets, using dedicated renewables, but the curtailed electricity from the market is used to feed these plants. National Trends does not have a specific top down demand for hydrogen, therefore the power-to-gas plants are built solely based on curtailed renewables.

In the COP21 scenarios, the main source used for electrolysis is offshore wind, but where regional constraints exist, onshore wind and solar PV will be the alternative.

The generation profiles match the capacities build. There is more RES capacity in Distributed Energy 2040 therefore it is natural that there is more curtailed energy in this scenario.

Following the EU’s long-term goal, National Trend is treated to reach 80 % to 95 % of decarbonisation by 2050. Although the commonly agreed target for 2030 is 40 % GHG emission reduction, the latest adoptions to the 2030 climate and energy framework (32,5 % improvement in energy efficiency, 32 % share for renewable energy) will consequently result in higher GHG emissions reductions. This is also shown by the European Commission’s Long-term Strategy Scenarios. On the other hand, the COP21 scenarios go for carbon neutrality by 2050, as suggested by the latest IPCC Special Report¹¹ and targeted by the European Commission.

As mentioned in Section 6.2.1, both COP21 Scenarios register a significant decrease in primary energy demand with increasing shares of renewables, mainly biomass and variable electricity (both for direct use and P2G production). Whereas electricity generation has already faced some level of transition, other carriers such as gas need to follow. ENTSOs’ scenario building exercise shows that to decarbonise all sectors as well as all fuel types, additional measures such as CCU/S, also in combination with bioenergy, are needed. Full decarbonisation also needs the contribution of non-energy related sectors, such as the decarbonisation of agriculture/meat production and further afforestation. It should be noted, that for GHG emissions related to non-CO₂ emissions (e. g. methane emissions) and LULUFC, ENTSOs’ scenarios rely on the average given by the 1.5TECH and 1.5LIFE scenarios of the European Commission’s Long-term Strategy.

In 2030 the electricity sector produces emissions of between 363 and 402 MtCO₂, a reduction of around 76 % as compared to 1990. Distributed Energy shows the largest the emission reduction is on par with National Trends. In the COP21 Scenarios, the electricity mix becomes almost carbon neutral by 2040 with emissions of 74 MtCO₂ in Distributed Energy and 87 MtCO₂ in Global Ambition. In this case both scenarios have the gas before coal merit order, but as the demand is higher in Distributed Energy, there is more consumption of both gas and coal. However, to meet the ambitious targets in the electricity generation, fuel input into small scale CHP, mainly gas, needs to be 83 % decarbonised. Moreover, in Distributed Energy also CCU/S needs to be applied to CCGTs by 2040.

National Trends sees emissions of 196 MtCO₂, on target with the 2°C scenarios shown in the Long-term Strategy from the European Commission.

Gas as an energy carrier with increasing shares of renewable and decarbonised gases plays a key role in the decarbonisation of the economy. Biomethane and renewable gases produced via P2G do not have CO₂ emissions, but if CCU/S (post-combustive or during the production of biomethane) is applied their consumption can even lead to negative emissions. Apart from indigenously produced renewable gases, also the consumed natural gas needs to be decarbonised with carbon capture technologies, either pre-combustive in combination with steam methane reforming or methane pyrolysis, or post-combustive in large-scale industrial sites or power plants. However, post-combustive CCS may mostly be applied to large scale process such as industrial sites or power plants and its carbon capture rate is usually around 90 %.

In Distributed Energy in 2050, 65 % of the gas will be renewable, but for the other 35 % needs to be decarbonised with carbon capture technologies: in 2050, to be carbon-neutral, 90 MtCO₂ need to be captured during the conversion of natural gas into hydrogen and additionally 50 MtCO₂ need to be removed post-combustive at industrial sites.

Figure 31 shows the emissions related to the consumption of gases and the average carbon intensity (in kgCO₂/kWh) of the gas mix in Distributed Energy. Due to above mentioned restrictions for post-combustive CCS, the CO₂ intensity of the gas mix decreases by 86 % in Distributed Energy by 2050 compared to conventional natural gas.

Due to higher imports, Global Ambition sees a broader need for CCU/S to decarbonise the gas mix to reach carbon neutrality. To produce hydrogen from natural gas up to 264 MtCO₂/year need to be captured and stored or used. Additionally, up to 83 MtCO₂/year need to be removed post-combustive. Furthermore, 88 MtCO₂ needs to be captured from biomethane, which allows for negative emissions. The CO₂ intensity of gas decreases by 86 % in Global Ambition in 2050 compared to conventional natural gas.

In this context ENTSOG and ENTSO-E’ assumptions on the need and application of CCS are guided by the European Commission’s Long-term Strategy and its most ambitious 1.5°C scenarios: 1.5LIFE and 1.5TECH see the necessity of 281 to 606 MtCO₂ captured (see section 8.5 for a benchmark with these scenarios).