Improvements in 2020 Scenarios
Since TYNDP 2018 ENTSOG and ENTSO-E have aligned their TYNDP timelines and processes leading to the same TYNDP publication timeframes. Before that time, each organisation had its own individual process with the ENTSO-E TYNDP 2016 and ENTSOG TYNDP 2017 respectively. The joint development of the TYNDP Scenarios introduced at the TYNDP2018 project start must be highlighted as one of the most significant process improvement steps, as ENTSO-E and ENTSOG pooled their Scenario Building efforts and expertise in the frame of the interlinked model.
The focus study on the interlinkage between gas and electricity12, performed by Artelys and presented to Copenhagen Infrastructure Forum 2019, concludes that most of the interlinkage is captured in the scenarios and the level of direct interaction mainly depends on the assumptions made on the different technologies for gas to power and power to gas conversion, as well as on the hybrid technologies. Those interactions defining the interlinkage between gas and electricity thus directly derive from the storylines defined and selected with the stakeholders.
Both ENTSOs consistently work to modernise their data, tools and methodologies between each release of the scenarios. Some of the key improvements for the Scenarios 2020 are presented below. The methodologies used by both ENTSOs to produce the scenarios are presented in detail in the Annex of this report.
11.1 More sustainability-oriented Scenarios (carbon budget)
With the introduction of a carbon budget as an input to the COP21 scenarios, ENTSOG and ENTSO-E can assess what the targets set by the COP21 require from the energy system beyond 2025 and hence, support the policy decision-making process.
The development of the carbon budget and the input assumptions to the scenarios have involved a wide range of stakeholders including environmental organisation, participating to the credibility of the two very different pathways the energy system could take towards reaching the European Union climate ambitions. Building on previous exercise, ENTSOG and ENTSO-E have kept the centralised and decentralised approach of, respectively, Global Ambition and Distributed Energy scenarios. Even if these scenarios should not be considered more likely than others, they will allow ENTSOG and ENTSO-E to consider the electricity and the gas system under the most contrasted situations, thus delivering the most comprehensive assessment.
11.2 Total Energy Scenarios (Top-down)
Whereas ENTSOs’ TYNDP 2018 Scenarios were mainly based on bottom-up collected data for the gas and electricity sectors, for the first time, they have developed top-down Scenarios capturing the full energy system (all sectors, all fuels). In this sense, the joint Working Group Scenario Building developed an in-house energy model tool called the “Ambition Tool”.
The main objectives were:
- to better map the sectoral coupling and the associated interdependence between gas and electricity sector
- to improve the methodologies to capture all GHG emissions and their development within a time period and thus ensure that the scenarios are in compliance with the Paris Agreement targets (carbon budget method as stated by the IPCC Special Report).
It is a policy driven top-down energy model, as no cost elements are considered and is linked to the Eurostat 2015 data as projection starting point. Working Group Scenario Building is looking at the European ambition level with levers sectoral technology split, fuel types, supply sources etc. and is working out the future energy carrier content (focusing on the gas and electricity system).
11.3 Electricity Demand
TRAPUNTA (Temperature Regression and loAd Projection with UNcertainty Analysis) is the next step in electricity load forecasting after about one year of development. This tool is a software that allows to perform electric load prediction starting from data analysis of the historical time series (electric load, temperature, other climatic variables) and evaluation of the future evolution of the market (e. g., penetration of heat pump, electric vehicles, batteries, population and industrial growth).
It has been developed by Milano Multiphysics for ENTSO-E. TRAPUNTA is based on an innovative methodology for the electric load projection analysis based on regression, model order reduction and uncertainty propagation.
11.4 Gas Demand
Taking into account recent technologic and political trends, ENTSOs have decided to investigate the demand for methane and hydrogen separately. The term gas therefore stands for the sum of both gas types.
Daily gas peak demand computation
As for TYNDP 2018 Scenarios, the daily gas peak demand figures for gas have been collected from the TSOs for the bottom-up scenario National Trends. For the top-down scenarios, as the annual demand values were determined with the Ambition Tool, ENTSOs have developed a methodology to compute daily gas peak demand figures using sectoral full load hours and temperature-demand regression curves.
Dunkelflaute climatic case
Considering the level of development of renewable generation capacities in the COP21 scenarios, especially in 2040, ENTSOG and ENTSO-E have developed for the first time a Dunkelflaute climatic case (DF) to assess the possible impact of additional gas demand for power generation when minimum variable renewable generation is available for two weeks.
11.5 Electricity Generation
Following the exchange with internal and external stakeholders a co-optimization of generation capacity and grid was performed. This new method includes following key improvements:
- Endogenous and simultaneous optimisation of generation capacity and interconnectors
- Utilisation of scenario dependent CAPEX costs, OPEX costs and fuel prices with endogenous CO₂ level adjustment
- Endogenous CO₂ price setting as a function of carbon budget as main investment lever
- Consideration of household solar battery storage systems, vehicle to grid and industry demand side response
- Implementation of RES technology evolution by the usage of time horizon (2025, 2030 and 2040) related RES infeed time series
The Scenario Building process is developing “top-down” scenario data sets that are quantified using a number of optimisation loops according to the stakeholder agreed storylines. In order to improve the scenario quantification by setting plausible boundaries, the Working Group Scenario Building established a Trajectory data collection for various core supply and demand elements based on up to three national scenarios (with low, medium and high development trajectories). The main aim of this complementary information is to help better integrate uncertainties on national political decisions like coal phase-outs, nuclear fleet developments, RES support schemes but also to elaborate on upcoming technologies like electric vehicles, battery storages or P2G.
Based on those data, it is possible to:
- Ensure coherency with national studies
- Take into account national policies and political decisions/plans
- Set boundaries for technology developments
- Compare the outcomes of ENTSOG and ENTSO-E scenarios with national perspectives
11.6 Gas Supply
In TYNDP 2018, gas supply assumptions consist of mainly bottom-up data for domestic production of natural gas, biomethane and P2G without a quality split in methane and hydrogen.
As done in external studies (e. g. EC’s “Clean Planet for all”) ENTSOs’ developed generic assumptions on the import share for gas supply. This enables ENTSOG and ENTSO-E to test the gas infrastructure under different conditions (high import shares, low import shares). ENTSOs are convinced that centralisation and de-centralisation will have a major impact on future infrastructure needs.
To further improve the data quality and capture latest trends, ENTSOG in collaboration with the consultancy Navigant (previously Ecofys) has developed a “Biomethane Production tool”, which is based on the assumptions of the “Gas for Climate” study. The tool considers anaerobic digestion and thermal gasification as technologies to produce biomethane. To capture the potential of both technologies it differentiates between several feedstock types and growing regions within Europe.
For the first time, ENTSOs have identified the need for hydrogen supply considering three major technologies: P2G, Steam Methane Reforming plus CCU/S and Methane Pyrolysis. They have developed methodologies to identify the indigenous production of hydrogen by aforementioned technologies and, following their assumptions on the import share, the need for direct hydrogen imports and/or natural gas imports to convert it into hydrogen in Europe, respectively.
11.7 P2G and P2L
For the top-down scenarios, the quantification of the production of synthetic hydrogen, methane and liquid via P2G and P2L was extended to a two-step approach for the top-down scenarios. In a first step, curtailed electricity from the electricity market model is considered as source of renewable electricity to produce renewable gases (hydrogen, methane and liquids). In a second step, additional renewable electricity production is assumed and modelled to meet the demand for renewable gases. This is done via a dedicated model, which quantifies the needed RES, P2G and P2L capacities for the purpose of supplying synthetic gas.
Next editions will provide the opportunity to further enhance the modelling of P2X by taking into account different configurations (e. g. P2G supplied by dedicated RES, at the interface of electricity and gas systems or at consumer facility) and analyzing their impact on electricity and gas infrastructures.
11.8 Data Visualisation Platform
An online data visualisation platform was set up to engage with internal and external stakeholders and improve the transparency with regard to the scenario outcome. Stakeholders have simplified as well as extended data access with online analysis functions.